HIP-4 · Prediction Liquidity Provider

Bringing the most accurate world's prediction.

A permissionless vault that quotes every outcome market, hedges imbalances across correlated events, and distributes fees to depositors. One book for every question the world hasn't answered yet.

Deposit to Vault View live markets
Demo mode · simulated ticks
Total Value Locked
$48.29M
+4.2%
30d APY
17.4%
+0.8%
Depositors
2,184
+12%
24h Volume
$12.64M
-2.1%
Mechanism

Three jobs, one vault.

01 · Market make

Quote every outcome

The vault posts two-sided liquidity on every binary market — YES and NO. Spreads tighten automatically as depth grows. Latency, not capital, becomes the moat.

02 · Hedge

Net correlated risk

Fed cuts, recession odds, SPY drawdown — these are one trade, not three. The correlation matrix nets exposure so the vault holds the residual, not the gross.

03 · Earn

Distribute fees pro-rata

Maker rebates and spread capture flow back to depositors every epoch. No team carry, no lockups beyond the cooldown. The vault is the LP, you are the vault.

Vault Deposit

Open
Amount
USDC
0.002071 % of vault
Expected APY17.4%
Est. daily yield$0.48
Cooldown4 days
Your share0.0000 sPLP
Your capital market-makes every HIP-4 outcome. Exposures are netted against correlated pairs like "US recession declared in 2026?" (ρ=0.62). You hold the residual edge.

Live Markets

9 active
macro$2.43M vol
Fed cuts rates in Q2 2026?
YES
63.0¢
NO
37.0¢
macro$1.88M vol
US recession declared in 2026?
YES
29.0¢
NO
71.0¢
macro$0.94M vol
SPY closes below 520 by July?
YES
34.0¢
NO
66.0¢
crypto$3.12M vol
BTC hits $120k before July?
YES
47.0¢
NO
53.0¢
crypto$0.61M vol
ETH/BTC > 0.06 by June?
YES
22.0¢
NO
78.0¢
crypto$0.82M vol
SOL closes above $300 in May?
YES
41.0¢
NO
59.0¢
politics$1.22M vol
Dem wins 2026 midterms (House)?
YES
52.0¢
NO
48.0¢
politics$0.33M vol
US passes federal AI bill by Q4?
YES
18.0¢
NO
82.0¢
equities$0.74M vol
TSLA beats Q2 earnings?
YES
58.0¢
NO
42.0¢
Top correlated hedges for selection
US recession declared in 2026?ρ = +0.62
SPY closes below 520 by July?ρ = -0.48
BTC hits $120k before July?ρ = +0.41
TSLA beats Q2 earnings?ρ = +0.29

Correlation Matrix

ρ ∈ [-1, +1]
1
0.6
-0.5
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.6
1
0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.4
-0.5
0.7
1
-0.5
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
0.0
-0.7
0.4
-0.4
-0.5
1
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.6
1
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.7
0.5
1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
1
0.1
0.3
-0.4
-0.7
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
1
Hover a cell to inspect pair correlation
negative
neutral
positive
Who this is for

Market-making prediction markets used to be a black-box edge. Now it's a public vault.

USE_CASE_01

Passive depositors

Earn market-making yield without running infrastructure. Deposit USDC, accrue sPLP, redeem after the 4-day cooldown. Think HLP, but your PnL comes from spread capture on event outcomes instead of perp funding.

USE_CASE_02

HIP-4 market creators

Launch a prediction market with instant two-sided depth. Hyperledger quotes from second zero — no warm-up, no incentive farming program needed. Liquidity is a public good.

USE_CASE_03

Delta-one desks

Sell correlated risk you can't net internally. If you're long SPY puts and want to offload Fed-cut exposure, the vault is the counterparty with the right matrix to price it.

USE_CASE_04

Researchers & quants

Fork the strategy. Tune the covariance estimator, add your own mean-reversion signal, ship it as a competing vault on the same HIP-4 rails. The code is public; the capital is programmable.

The liquidity backbone for prediction markets.

Fork it. Extend it. Deposit into it. Hyperledger is open-source and permissionless from day one.